Philosophymagazine
The original
compact is not made with a sovereign power since the existence of such a
power is the end result and not the foundation of the compact.
—Roger
Scruton
Natural rights
are inalienable—ie. even if you seek to bargain them away you cannot since
they are they are not the kind of thing that can be bargained.
—Roger
Scruton
We
are compelled by reason to acknowledge the existence of natural, inalienable
rights and duties independent of convention, agreement or contract.
—John
Locke
The
Bernoulli Form elucidates
the notion of Platonic Forms in describing how a motley crew of Forms—including
Delphi, forecasting, integration, utility, optimization, efficiency and
complementary—come together to form The Bernoulli Model.
The
Method of Moments elucidates the notion of Platonic Forms in describing how a
motley crew of Forms—including Delphi, forecasting, integration, utility,
optimization, efficiency and complementary—come together to form The
Bernoulli Model.
The
Efficient Frontier examines
the notions of God, option theory, portfolio theory, faith, reason and Arab
math—finally
arriving at the inescapable conclusion that all roads of sound
decisionmaking lead to the efficient frontier.
The
Unpardonable Sin charges
all honourables and doctors in Canada with heresy, child abuse and the
unpardonable sin that Christ spoke of—which is the deliberate refusal to
follow the light when seen.
The
Uncertainty Principle contrasts
Einstein with Heisenberg, relativity with quantum theory, behavioralism with
existentialism, certainty with uncertainty and philosophy with
science—finally arriving at the inescapable Platonic conclusion that the
true philosopher is always striving after Being and will not rest with those
multitudinous phenomena whose existence are appearance only.
A
Formal Patient congratulates Alberta Health and Wellness for insisting on
the accountability of due process in declaring individuals to be formal
patients—and argues that I am being considered a formal patient as the
result of an absence of due process elsewhere in Canada—and that I
should not be considered a formal patient but that I should be declared
disabled on account of being outside the cave of behaviorism.
Singularity
identifies the trigger of the looming paradigm shift from the threedimensionally conscioused Everyman to the fourdimensionally conscioused Superman as the 1935 Schrödinger's Cat though problem—which proves that consciousness is
real.
The
Great Cosmic Accounting Blunder compares
the two physical fixedpoints in the universe—lightspeed and Planck’s
constant—and argues that we have been guilty of double counting up until
now and that in fact there is but one fixedpoint—which, as it turns out,
is the boundary of the universe.
The
Unified Field Theory
counts down the Euclidean hits
from five to one in categorically nailing the vast majority of this little
thing I like to call cosmic pi. At this point in spacetime I would
like to pay special tribute to my excellent wingman Albert Einstein (1879–1955).
Closing
the Liars Loophole
identifies the malignant cancer within the healthcare system and
society as the outwardly focusing behavioral psychological model, which
denies the existence of consciousness—while the inwardly focusing
existential model makes consciousness and the soul primordially important.

Summary—This essay
describes the process of putting into play an executive risk management,
decisionmaking and forecasting system.
Quotation—A successful
business executive is a forecaster first—purchasing, production, marketing,
pricing and organizing all follow. —Peter Bernstein
Jewish religion stresses the fact that Scripture
can be interpreted on many different levels. Christ’s teachings
encompassed themes that were already central to Jewish thought—for
example, love and the importance of helping the unfortunate. But he
also taught the unorthodox thesis that Jewish law could be
summarized in terms of loving God with one’s whole heart. Christ
sharply criticized those who made a great show of their holiness but
who failed to show compassion—a theme again borrowed from the Hebrew
prophets. Muhammad (570632) was a merchant in Mecca who became the
central prophet and founder of Islam. The term Islam derives from
slam and means peace and surrender—namely, the peace that comes from
surrendering to the will of God’s sovereignty. Before Islam the
religions of the Arabic world involved the worship of many
gods—Allah being one of them. Muhammad taught the worship of Allah
as the only God, whom he identified as the same God worshipped by
the Christians and the Jews. And Muhammad also accepted the
authenticity of both the Jewish prophets and Christ—as do his
followers. It is then accordingly clear that there is but one God.
The Bernoulli Model. The Bernoulli Model
uses a topdown, strategic management approach to scientific
management. It combines the processes of forecasting, integrating
and optimization. The act of forecasting produces not only
estimates of outcomes but also estimates of uncertainty surrounding
outcomes. In addition to the basic closedform method of
integration involving the twomoment normal distribution, The
Bernoulli Model also employs the method of Monte Carlo simulation
along with the fourmoment Camus Distribution in order to generate,
capture and integrate the full spectrum of heterogeneously
distributed forecasts of outcomes and the uncertainty surrounding
outcomes. Optimization algorithms search riskreward space in order
to determine the optimal set of decisions subject to Delphi
constraints. Closedform optimization algorithms include linear
programming while openform methods include hillclimbing and
genetic algorithms.
The Method of Prototyping. The method of
prototyping involves developing a series of micromodels which
eventually become macromodels. In this case these micromodels are
designed for use by the treasurer. The Bernoulli Model further adds
the Delphi program to more specifically define organizational
values—utility theory to translate external values into internal
values—Monte Carlo simulation to integrate heterogeneous risk
components—the Camus Distribution to fourdimensionally represent
risk—the Bernoulli moment vector for tracking forecasts—and an
alternative hypothesis to serve as the loyal opposition to the null
hypothesis. The model also includes very stylish and
highlyadvanced Excel charts, VBA code and RoboHelp files.
Financial Indicators. A financial
indicator designates a pointer of value—eg. VaR—Value at Risk, EaR—Earnings
at Risk, CFaR—Cash Flow at Risk, UaR—Utils at Risk. It is important
to understand that each indicator includes a statistical
distribution. Here The Bernoulli Model utilizes the Bernoulli
moment vector—each of which vector contains fourteen elements.
Financial indicators are the cornerstone of risk management. These
financial indicators emphasize what organizations hold of value.
The officers and directors designate the expected financial
indicator values as well as the uncertainly or risk surrounding the
chosen values. Theses values are chosen by the officers and
directors using the Delphi program. The financial indicators expand
on the definition of risk and reward.
Expanded Definition of Risk and Reward.
Financial indicators are the objects by which risk and reward are
measured. Exposure (ie. Exp—M0) measures the initial exposure to
change in value. While the fourmoment The Bernoulli Model provides
an expanded definition of risk from the twomoment normal
distribution to the fourmoment Camus Distribution (ie. Mu—M1,
SD—M2, Skew—M3, Kurt—M4) and fractal scaling (ie. Frac—M9) provide
an expanded definition of risk. Utility theory provides an example
of an expanded definition of reward by changing external market
values into internal Delphi values. For example, a 100 percent
external return (ie. Mu—M1) becomes a 50 percent internal return
(ie. VaL—M5) while a –20 percent internal return becomes a –30
percent internal return. While a 100 percent return is obviously
desirable, undue emphasis on trying to achieve such a result may
produce erratic outcomes and the missing out on more conservative
opportunities.
Utility Theory. In 1905 Albert Einstein
wrote one of the most profound documents ever written entitled
Special Relativity Theory. In 1952 Harry Markowitz wrote one of
the most profound documents ever written entitled Portfolio
Selection Theory. In 1738 Daniel Bernoulli (170082) wrote one
of the most profound documents ever written entitled Utility
Theory—the full name of the theory being—The Exposition of a
New Theory on the Measurement of Risk. The central theme of
Utility Theory being that the value of an asset is the utility
it yields rather than its market price. His paper delineates the
allpervasive relationship between empirical measurement and gut
feel. The utility function converts external, market returns into
internal, Delphi returns.
The Bernoulli Moment Vector. The
Bernoulli moment vector tracks risk and return forecasts via a
fourteenelement vector. The Markowitz Model uses the mean to
represent the forecast or reward and the standard deviation to
represent the dispersion or risk—thus laying the groundwork for
riskreward efficiency analysis. The method of moments is a simple
procedure for estimating the statistical moments of a distribution.
The mean is the first moment of a distribution and is calculated as
the average value—and the standard deviation is the second moment
and is calculated as the average deviation about the mean. The
Bernoulli Model also employs an expansion on the method of moments
with the Bernoulli moment vector relating to the aggregate portfolio
distribution. The zero moment in the Bernoulli moment vector
represents exposure. The Camus Distribution represents the first
four moments. The fifth moment is VaL and represents a utilitarian
translation of reward and thus an expanded definition of reward.
The sixth moment is VaR and represents the confidence level and thus
an expanded definition of risk.
The Complementary Principle. Niels Bohr
is one of the founding fathers of quantum theory who also defined
the complementary principle as the coexistence of two necessary and
seemingly incompatible descriptions of the same phenomenon. One of
the first realizations dates back to 1637 when Descartes revealed
that algebra and geometry are the same thing—ie. analytic geometry.
The Bernoulli Model allows for the separation of the null and
alternative hypothesis. This ability to compare paradigms
represents an invaluable feature of The Bernoulli Model. The
Bernoulli moment vector represents the tabular depiction of the
Bernoulli portfolio while the Excel charts represent the graphical
form of the Bernoulli portfolio.
The Delphi Program. The Delphi program
is the overriding guidance system for The Bernoulli Model. It
employs the iterative Delphi method designed to draw out fundamental
values from officers and directors. The purpose of the Delphi
process is to streamline decisionmaking for all concerned. The
Delphi program is named after the Socratic inscription—Know
Thyself—at the oracle at Delphi in ancient Greece. The primary
Delphi value pertains to the confidence level and value for
allowable downside risk exposure of the portfolio distribution—using
a financial indicator like VaR. Secondary Delphi value pertains to
the utility translation function and riskreward efficiency
analysis.
The Actuarial Valuation Process. The
actuarial valuation worksheet shows the progression of the financial
indicators through the valuation process. The actuarial valuation
worksheet shows the end result of the technical development. The
worksheet contains the Bernoulli moment vector for both the
components and the portfolio. It also contains advanced Excel
charts that are broken down into the null configuration and the
alternative configuration. Anything that is not made clear from the
actuarial valuation worksheet can be found in the technical analysis
worksheet. This worksheet shows the development of the actuarial
valuation process.
The Treasurers’ Perspective. The
Bernoulli Model is a topdown strategic management, forecasting and
risk management system that is mathematically accessible to
executives. It is designed for use by the treasurer showing the
actuarial valuation Excel worksheet illustrating a storyboard that
demarcates the same six Excel charts for all organizational
financial indicators used in the actuarial valuation process. The
worksheet also presents both the null and alternative valuation
parameters and the null and alternative Bernoulli moment vectors.
The actuarial valuation worksheet also includes valuation parameters
as well as the Bernoulli moment vectors. All of this leads to a
brand new look at scientific management for the treasurer.
Conclusion. Peter
Bernstein once said that risk is no longer bad news—rather it is a
harbinger of opportunity to be harnessed for our benefit.
This essay describes the process of putting into
play an executive risk management, decisionmaking and forecasting
system. Sir James Jeans once said that God is a
mathematician. The notion of God as a mathematician is in fact
consistent with the idea that there is only on God. 
