Enclosures and Responses


Table of Contents

Enclosures—28 November 2004
Responses—28 November 2004

Enclosures—20 December 2004
Responses—20 December 2004

The Bernoulli Architecture—20 December 2004

The Bernoulli Storyboard—20 December 2004

 


Enclosures—28 November 2004

From—Bek—To—McLachlin—Point of No Return—20 Aug 2003

From—Bek—To—Clark—Criminal Charges Against Canadian Honourables and Doctors—21 Jul 2003

From—Bek—To—McLachlin—Notification of Treasonable Acton—1 Apr 2003

From—Bek—To—McLachlin—Lawful and Rightful Declaration of Kingship to Canada—28 Sep 2002

From—Bek—To—Chrétien—Klein—Recognition Request for Achievement of Scientific Greatness—28 Jun 2002

Book—A Brief History of Time by Hawking (1996)

argues that if we discover a complete theory of everything, it should be understandable by everyone and not just a few scientists—eventually leading all of us to the mind of God.

Book—Albert Einstein—Creator and Rebel by Hoffman (1972)

tells how the essence of Einstein lay in his simplicity and profound sense of beauty.

Book—The Strange Story of the Quantum by Hoffmann (1958)

characterizes the profound importance of uniting quantum theory and relativity.

Book—Beyond Einstein by Kaku (1995)

characterizes the profound importance of uniting quantum theory and relativity.

Book—The End of Physics by Lindley (1993)

tells how the final theory of everything will undoubtedly be a mathematical system of uncommon tidiness and rigor that accommodates the physical facts of the universe as we know it.

Book—Introducing Quantum Theory by McEvoy (1997)

tells how quantum physics concerns itself with the nature of matter at the microcosmic level—and is the basis for all electronic equipment like televisions, computers, laser disk players.

Book—Mysticism and the New Physics by Talbot (1993)

tells the story of the monolithic experiment that took place in 1982 which proved that faster-than-light signaling is possible.

Book—The Universe and Dr Einstein by Barnett (1948)

represents a valuable contribution to popular scientific writing.  The main ideas of the theory of relativity are extremely well presented.  Moreover, the present state of our knowledge in physics is aptly characterized.

PM—The Great Cosmic Accounting Blunder

captures the essence of the theory of one which unites the Godmade laws of nature—relativity and quantum theory—by recognizing lightspeed and Planck’s constant as the same boundary of the of the spacetime continuum.

PM—QED Baby

presents a complementary view of reality—and argues that the synthesis of this complementary view with the everyday view is necessary for achieving global sustainability.

PM—Singularity

identifies the trigger of the looming paradigm shift from the three-dimensionally conscioused Everyman to the four-dimensionally conscioused Superman as the 1935 Schrödinger's Cat though problem—which proves that consciousness is real.

PM—The Unified Field Theory

based on the theory of one, the unified field theory solves the problem Einstein spent the last thirty years of his life working on by uniting the four forces of nature with the four levels of being—thereby integrating consciousness and the soul into physical theory.

PM—Against Physics

compares the two major physical theories and argues there is only one photon or particle of light in the universe and that the one photon is in fact God.

PM—The Allegory of One

tells Plato’s allegory of the cave and the story of Creation—and then considers the possibility of interpreting Creation allegorically rather than literally or by appearance only.

 


Responses—28 November 2004

From—Mansbridge—To—Bek—Acknowledgement of T1—5 Apr 2001

From—Chrétien—To—Bek—Acknowledgement of T1—12 Jul 2002

From—Chrétien—To—Bek—Acknowledgement of T1—11 Feb 2003

From—Klein—To—Bek—Acknowledgement of T1—16 Jul 2002

 


Enclosures—20 December 2004

From—Bek—To—Martin—Klein—Subject—Plan for Introduction of Scientific Pathway—28 Nov 2004

From—Bek—To—Chrétien—Klein—Recognition Request for Achievement of Scientific Greatness—28 Jun 2002

PM—Great Cosmic Accounting Blunder

captures the essence of the theory of one which unites the Godmade laws of nature—relativity and quantum theory—by recognizing lightspeed and Planck’s constant as the same boundary of the of the spacetime continuum.

PM—Against Physics

compares the two major physical theories and argues there is only one photon or particle of light in the universe and that the one photon is in fact God.

PM—Scientific Management

follows the development of relativity from Archimedes to Einstein—and then takes a parallel line of reasoning in considering the development of scientific management.

PM—Transcending Uncertainty

recounts the events leading up to the paradigm shift of quantum theory in 1925—and then takes a look at what we still have to learn from it.  The nanosecond forecast of Philosophymagazine calls for a monumental paradigm shift whereby we will finally orient ourselves to the universe.

PM—The Allegory of One

tells Plato’s allegory of the cave and the story of Creation—and then considers the possibility of interpreting Creation allegorically rather than literally or by appearance only.

PM—The Unified Field Theory

based on the theory of one, the unified field theory solves the problem Einstein spent the last thirty years of his life working on by uniting the four forces of nature with the four levels of being—thereby integrating consciousness and the soul into physical theory.

PM—Singularity

identifies the trigger of the looming paradigm shift from the three-dimensionally conscioused Everyman to the four-dimensionally conscioused Superman as the 1935 Schrödinger's Cat though problem—which proves that consciousness is real.

PM—QED Baby

presents a complementary view of reality—and argues that the synthesis of this complementary view with the everyday view is necessary for achieving global sustainability.

PM—The Uncertainty Principle

contrasts Einstein with Heisenberg, relativity with quantum theory, behavioralism with existentialism, certainty with uncertainty and philosophy with science—finally arriving at the inescapable Platonic conclusion that the true philosopher is always striving after Being and will not rest with those multitudinous phenomena whose existence are appearance only.

PM—The Unpardonable Sin

charges all honourables and doctors in Canada with heresy, child abuse and the unpardonable sin that Christ spoke of—which is the deliberate refusal to follow the light when seen.

PM—Closing the Liars Loophole

identifies the malignant cancer within the healthcare system and society as the outwardly focusing behavioral psychological model, which denies the existence of consciousness—while the inwardly focusing existential model makes consciousness and the soul primordially important.

PM—The Bernoulli Model

recognizes the notion of wisdom—and argues that the world is on the cusp of a monumental paradigm shift due to the imminent fall of the authoritian model and the rise of portfolio theory in the practical incarnation of The Bernoulli Model.

PM—The Bernoulli Form

elucidates the notion of Platonic Forms in describing how a motley crew of Forms—including Delphi, forecasting, integration, utility, optimization, efficiency and complementary—come together to form The Bernoulli Model.

PM—The Efficient Frontier

examines the notions of God, option theory, portfolio theory, faith, reason and Arab math—finally arriving at the inescapable conclusion that all roads of sound decisionmaking lead to the efficient frontier.

PM—The Method of Moments

delineates dimensional deconstruction and reconstruction combined with fractal analysis as the fundamental method of riskmodeling employed by The Bernoulli Model.

 


Responses—20 December 2004

From—Mansbridge—To—Bek—Acknowledgement of T1—5 Apr 2001

From—Chrétien—To—Bek—Acknowledgement of T1—12 Jul 2002

From—Chrétien—To—Bek—Acknowledgement of T1—11 Feb 2003

From—Klein—To—Bek—Acknowledgement of T1—16 Jul 2002

 


The Bernoulli Architecture

Architecture

Delphi Program

The Delphi program allows for the input of organizational values which then guides the decisionmaking process.  The basic Delphi value is represented by a confidence level describing the maximum allowable downside change in portfolio value—ie. VaR.  Advanced Delphi values include utility translations and objectives relating to financial, strategic, operating and competition. 

Forecasting

The process of forecasting produces not only estimates outcomes but also estimates of uncertainty surrounding outcomes.  Advanced forecasting methods include forward curve analysis, option price analysis, intertemporal riskmodeling, expert opinion, Bayesian analysis, neural networks and event riskmodeling.

Integration

In addition to the basic closed-form method involving the two-moment normal distribution, the Bernoulli Model also employs Monte Carlo simulation along with the four-moment the Camus distribution in order to capture and integrate the full spectrum of heterogeneously distributed forecasts of outcomes and uncertainty.

Optimization

Optimization algorithms search risk-reward space in order to determine the optimal set of decisions subject to Delphi constraints.  Closed-form optimization algorithms include linear programming while open-form methods include hill-climbing and genetic algorithms.

Optimized Portfolio

The optimized portfolio represents the raison d’être of portfolio theory.  Portfolio theory brings together the consequences of a varied set of uncertain components.  The Bernoulli Model employs sensitivity analysis or stress-testing algorithms to insure optimal portfolio robustness.

Historical Data

Historical data includes market rates, forward rates, option rates and production data—both historical and current.  In addition, portfolio accountability analysis is fed back into the model along with the other historical data in order to essentially make the forecasting process self-aware.

Exposure Data

Exposure is simple the initial asset value exposed to change.  For example, five barrels of oil at $40 per barrel equals $200 of exposure.  A long position is has positive exposure while a short position is negative.  Exposure data also includes exposure dynamics particularly relevant to risk components like credit risk.

Expert Opinion

Expert opinion is particularly useful when historical data is unavailable or unreliable.  The Bernoulli Model integrates expert opinion into the forecasting process that uses Bayesian analysis to estimate uncertainty surrounding forecasts.  The model also provides experts with regular follow-up performance reports.

Event Scenarios

One of the first event risk studies was conducted in 1933 to examine the effects of stock splitting on price.  Event riskmodeling is an advanced form of forecasting that uses decision trees in order to see how specific scenarios might play out.  The approach is well suited to contingency planning.

Comparability Analysis

While the primary function of portfolio theory is to bring together all uncertain components into a single view, the secondary function is to provide comparability between components.  The Bernoulli Model uses the complimentary principle in the form of the null and alternative hypotheses.

Accountability Analysis

The nineteenth century saw the inauguration of management accounting for managing the efficient conversion of raw materials into finished products.  The Bernoulli Model is designed to manage the efficient conversion of uncertain information into organizational value.

 


The Bernoulli Storyboard

mmValn_P1

The Bernoulli Model presents the same consistent storyboard for all organizational risk factors.  The display parameters are on the top while the valuation parameters are on the left.  Below the valuation parameters is the component Bernoulli Moment Vector (BMV) while on the right side of the charts is the portfolio BMV.  If the three charts on the left of the storyboard are the components or ingredients in a loaf of portfolio bread, the three charts on the right are the different ways of slicing up the bread.  The light blue is the null paradigm—green is the alternative paradigm—dark blue is the common between the two paradigms.  Chart V1 delineates the risk factor exposure to change in value—eg. five barrels of oil at $40 per barrel equals $200 of exposure.  Chart V2 captures the component forecast distributions for two of the components.  Chart V3 shows the correlation between changes in value of components—ie. a correlation of one means factors move in lockstep, zero means no correlation.  Chart V4 illustrates first-order risk management by contrasting risk (ie. VaR) with risk exposure limits (ie. Delphi).  Chart V5 captures the portfolio forecast distributions and demonstrates the standardized Bernoulli paradigm frame (ie. –/+ six-sigma).  Chart V6 illustrates second-order risk management or efficiency analysis by contrasting value creation against the risk associated with value creation.